Key facts
- Lithuania's Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas warned that Russia is seeking new escalations due to its stalled war in Ukraine.
- Kaunas stated that Russia views the Baltic states and Poland as its closest potential targets.
- Recent warnings about potential Russian provocations have been issued by leaders from Poland and Lithuania.
- NATO officials acknowledge the possibility of a conventional Russian assault in the coming years.
- Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of the NATO Military Committee, asserted NATO's preparedness to counter Russian aggression.
Lithuania's Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas has warned that Russia is seeking new avenues for escalation as its military campaign in Ukraine faces significant challenges. In an interview with LRT public broadcaster, Kaunas suggested that the Kremlin, under President Vladimir Putin, views the Baltic countries and Poland as the "closest targets" for such an escalation, aiming for a "new victory" to compensate for stalled progress in Ukraine.
Kaunas's remarks echo recent concerns voiced by leaders in Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members bordering Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. These officials have cautioned about potential Russian provocations aimed at testing NATO's eastern flank. The warnings come at a time when NATO is also grappling with internal discussions regarding its unity, partly influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump's critical stance on European allies and potential shifts in U.S. military presence in Europe.
NATO military officials have not dismissed the possibility of a conventional Russian military action against a member state in the coming years. German army chief Christian Freuding indicated that intelligence, agreed upon by NATO, suggests Moscow could be prepared for such an invasion as early as 2029. Despite these concerns, Western officials maintain that the alliance is prepared to respond decisively to any hostile actions by Russia. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of the NATO Military Committee, emphasized that Russia would face significant losses if it were to provoke Poland or the Baltic states.