Key facts
- Myanmar's military has implemented a forced conscription policy, significantly boosting its manpower.
- Rebel forces are losing ground and are largely on the defensive against the junta's advances.
- The military has increased its air power, utilizing more advanced drones and aircraft.
- Rebel groups face critical shortages of weapons, ammunition, and technology.
- China's role includes brokering ceasefires and potentially limiting arms supplies to resistance forces.
Myanmar's civil war has seen a significant shift as the military junta, bolstered by a new conscription law, is pushing rebel forces onto the defensive. The mandatory enlistment policy has provided the military with a seemingly limitless supply of manpower, enabling it to retake territory and advance in key border regions like Kachin, Chin, and Karen states.
Rebel commanders report facing severe disadvantages, including shortages of weapons, ammunition, and advanced technology like drones. The military, in contrast, has reportedly increased its air power, with enhanced drone capabilities and more frequent air patrols, potentially linked to a security pact with Russia. China's influence is also a factor, with the nation brokering ceasefires with some rebel groups while reportedly throttling weapon supplies to resistance forces.
Despite these challenges, rebel fighters express determination. However, the reality on the ground is stark: towns and bases previously captured by rebels are being retaken by the junta's forces, often after intense artillery and airstrikes. The widespread use of landmines also poses a significant threat to both combatants and civilians.