Key facts
- Western allies believe Iran has significantly rebuilt its missile arsenal during an eight-week ceasefire.
- Intelligence assessments indicate Iran now possesses approximately 75% of its pre-war missile stockpiles.
- New Russian-built missiles, likely produced recently, are believed to have been added to Iran's inventory.
- During the ceasefire period, Iran launched over 1,850 missiles and numerous Shahed-type cruise missiles.
- Previous estimates in mid-March suggested Iran had only 60% of its pre-war missile inventory available.
Western allies believe Iran has significantly replenished its depleted missile stockpiles during an eight-week ceasefire, potentially incorporating newly manufactured Russian weapons. Intelligence assessments suggest Tehran now possesses approximately three-quarters of its pre-war munitions, providing it with substantial firepower should hostilities resume.
These assessments indicate that Iran's missile arsenal has been rebuilt to a level that could allow it to strike back with considerable force. The inclusion of unspecified Russian missiles, believed to have been produced within the last year, is a key concern for allied intelligence agencies. This development contrasts sharply with earlier estimates, including a statement from US President Donald Trump, who last week claimed Iran had only 21% to 22% of its missiles remaining.
In mid-March, intelligence reports had placed Iran's available pre-war missile inventory at around 60%, amidst an ongoing air campaign by the US and Israel aimed at degrading its long-range strike capabilities. Between February 28 and April 8, when the ceasefire took effect, Iran reportedly launched more than 1,850 missiles across the region, in addition to at least twice that number of Shahed-type cruise missiles. During the initial month of the conflict, US and Israeli estimates indicated that approximately two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers had been destroyed. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated in mid-March that the regime's offensive capability had been reduced by as much as 90%.