Key facts
- Intelligence assessments suggest Iran rebuilt its missile stockpiles and acquired new Russian arms during a recent ceasefire.
- These assessments challenge Donald Trump's assertion that Iran's military was significantly weakened.
- Tehran may now possess substantial missile capabilities, potentially including recent Russian-made weapons.
- Iran fired over 1,850 missiles and a larger number of Shahed-type cruise missiles during the ceasefire period.
- U.S. officials previously claimed Iran's offensive capabilities were reduced by 90 percent.
Fresh intelligence assessments suggest that Iran utilized a recent ceasefire to rebuild its missile stockpiles and acquire new Russian arms, a development that challenges claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump about the depletion of Iran's military capabilities.
According to reports citing these assessments, Tehran has likely replenished a significant portion of its missile arsenal and may have incorporated newly built Russian weapons. This suggests Iran could respond at nearly full strength if hostilities were to resume. One assessment specifically noted the potential inclusion of unspecified Russian-made missiles manufactured within the past year.
During the eight-week ceasefire that took effect on April 8, Iran reportedly fired more than 1,850 missiles and at least double that number of Shahed-type cruise missiles across the region. This activity contrasts with earlier claims by U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who stated in mid-March that Iran's offensive capabilities had been reduced by 90 percent. Intelligence in March had estimated Iran still possessed roughly 60 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile, even as U.S. and Israeli air operations aimed to degrade its long-range strike capabilities.
Shahed missiles, propeller-driven cruise missiles capable of traveling over 1,000 kilometers, cost less than $50,000 to produce and can be manufactured using accessible components like fiberglass, guidance systems, and motors. However, acquiring certain materials, particularly explosives, may have become more difficult following weeks of bombing.