Key facts
- Iran and the US have reportedly agreed to a ceasefire, paving the way for nuclear talks.
- A primary concern is Iran's uranium enrichment, which has reached 60% purity, close to weapons-grade.
- The 2015 nuclear deal, which previously constrained Iran's program, was exited by the US in 2018.
- Key issues for new talks include managing existing highly enriched uranium, determining future enrichment levels, and establishing verification.
- Iran has reportedly agreed in principle to downblend its highly enriched uranium.
- A 10-year moratorium on enrichment is being discussed.
Following a reported ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States, attention is turning to the critical issues that must be addressed in upcoming talks regarding Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have long expressed concern that Iran's enrichment activities could be a pathway to developing nuclear weapons, despite Iran's assertions that its program is for peaceful purposes.
Iran has been enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, a level significantly higher than that needed for power plants and a short step from the roughly 90% required for weapons-grade material. While the U.N. nuclear watchdog has stated it has no credible indication of a coordinated nuclear weapons program, it has noted that the amount of uranium enriched to 60% is a serious concern. The Non-Proliferation Treaty grants Iran the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful uses.
Recent Israeli-U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities have damaged or destroyed enrichment plants, but a significant amount of enriched uranium is believed to have survived. Prior to these attacks, the IAEA estimated Iran possessed 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60%, potentially enough for 10 nuclear weapons. More than 200 kg is thought to remain in a tunnel complex at Isfahan, with additional material at Natanz. The exact status of the bombed sites and remaining enriched uranium is unclear, as Iran has restricted IAEA inspector access.
Addressing these challenges will require significant compromise. Key points of negotiation include:
- Highly Enriched Uranium: President Donald Trump has stated a priority is removing or destroying this material. Iran, however, is resistant to both options. A potential compromise involves 'downblending' or diluting the uranium to a lower enrichment level, with discussions focusing on the extent of dilution and the permissible enrichment level remaining in the country. A senior Iranian official indicated an agreement in principle to downblend has been reached.
- Enrichment Levels: The U.S. has previously demanded zero enrichment, a stance Iran rejects, asserting its right to enrich. Negotiations will likely determine the permissible enrichment level, the quantity of product Iran can retain, and the locations and machinery allowed for enrichment, similar to the specifications in the 2015 deal.
- Program Transparency: With facilities damaged, ensuring a complete accounting of all materials and preventing diversion is crucial. Iran also possesses an unknown number of stored centrifuges. A precise inventory is vital for verification.
- Verification and Policing: The 2015 deal provided the IAEA with intrusive inspection powers, including snap inspections at undeclared sites, which Iran later revoked. Reinstating similar, robust verification mechanisms will be essential for any new agreement.