Key facts
- Gulf leaders expressed deep concerns to US officials about Iran's regional influence and proxy activities.
- US Secretary of State acknowledged these concerns, linking any definitive nuclear deal to Iran halting support for groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
- Analysts suggest Iran is likely to increase support for its proxies, including Hezbollah, despite its past strategic failures.
- The Houthis in Yemen, while somewhat independent, have shown capability in targeting Israel and threatening Red Sea shipping.
- US and Israeli efforts to mobilize ethnic minorities in Iran and Kurdish factions in Iraq to destabilize Tehran were unsuccessful.
- Israel has supported Palestinian militias in Gaza to fight Hamas, but these groups lack popular support and strategic impact.
Gulf states have voiced significant concerns to the United States regarding Iran's ongoing efforts to expand its influence and power through various proxy groups across the Middle East. These anxieties were shared during a recent visit by US Senator Marco Rubio, who acknowledged the "concrete concerns" raised by leaders in the region.
US Secretary of State stated that any final agreement with Iran must not only address its nuclear program but also compel Tehran to cease its support for groups such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. However, analysts and Western security officials believe Iran is likely to intensify its backing of these proxies following recent conflicts, aligning with Tehran's strategic outlook.
Hezbollah remains a cornerstone of Iran's proxy network, despite suffering losses in clashes with Israel in 2024 and 2025 and failing to deter direct Israeli strikes. Nevertheless, Iran remains committed to the group, which was founded with support from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps over 40 years ago. Experts believe the Revolutionary Guards see rebuilding and controlling these proxies as vital.
Iran's insistence on a ceasefire in Lebanon as part of a broader agreement with the US has created friction between Israel, which seeks to continue its offensive against Hezbollah, and Washington. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen, though more independent of Tehran, have demonstrated their capacity to target Israel and threaten international shipping in the Red Sea.
In Iraq, Shia militias nurtured by Iran for over two decades have been cautious about escalating conflict with the US, partly due to lethal retaliatory airstrikes and complex domestic politics. These groups were also used by Iran to target Kurdish factions, deterring them from joining the wider conflict.
US and Israeli strategies to mobilize Iran's ethnic minorities and Kurdish factions in Iraq proved unsuccessful. A long-standing US-Israeli plan involving Kurdish fighters crossing into Iran was shelved due to various factors, including insufficient immediate forces, Kurdish distrust of the US following events in Syria, and strong opposition from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Additionally, Israeli intelligence has reportedly supplied resources to a new Druze militia in Syria, and supported Palestinian militias in Gaza to combat Hamas. However, these latter groups lack popular support and are unlikely to alter the strategic situation in Gaza. Experts caution that relying on proxies is problematic, as they are often unreliable and can cause unintended damage.