Key facts
- Fresh hostilities have erupted in the Gulf, jeopardizing a recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
- The memorandum's broad wording on the Lebanon ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz passage is being challenged by conflicting interpretations.
- Two separate ceasefire agreements for Lebanon have emerged, one including Iran and Hezbollah, and another excluding them.
- The Strait of Hormuz passage agreement has failed, with Iran restricting routes and a ship being struck.
- The UN's International Maritime Organization has halted its plan for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Fresh hostilities in the Gulf, occurring just 10 days after Iran and the US signed a memorandum of understanding to de-escalate conflict, threaten to push the two nations back towards war. The deliberately opaque wording of the 14-point memorandum has struggled to withstand conflicting interpretations, placing supporters of the deal in Tehran on the defensive.
In Lebanon, the memorandum's ceasefire provisions have been undermined by two competing agreements. The first, discussed at the Lucerne talks and mentioned in the memorandum, appeared to grant Iran and its proxy Hezbollah a new role in a deconfliction mechanism, potentially sidelining Israel. However, a subsequent, more comprehensive ceasefire signed by the Lebanese government and overseen by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reverses this, excluding Iran and Hezbollah and allowing Israel to remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah's disarmament—a condition unacceptable to the group.
The memorandum has also failed to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. While the document stated Iran would use its best efforts for safe passage of commercial vessels for 60 days, it left key terms undefined and did not reference other actions to clear the strait. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy later restricted ships to using only the northern route. This followed an incident where a Singapore-flagged container ship was struck while transiting a southern route, leading the IMO Secretary General Arsenio Domínguez to halt his evacuation plan due to safety risks. Despite this, ships continue to use the strait, possibly due to an Iranian fear that the southern route could offer the US a way to break Iran's chokehold. Discussions between Oman and Iran regarding long-term management of the strait are ongoing, with Oman likely to frame proposals within UNCLOS, which could allow for designated sea lanes and traffic separation schemes but not general tolls.