Key facts
- EU defense chief Andrius Kubilius is exploring an initiative for joint military capability development.
- The plan aims to replace U.S.-provided strategic enablers like air-to-air refueling and command systems.
- Member states would voluntarily contribute to higher defense budgets for joint development and procurement.
- The estimated cost for replacing U.S. enablers is €500 billion, with other estimates ranging up to $1 trillion.
- This initiative is partly driven by concerns over U.S. commitment to NATO and recent asset reductions.
The European Union is considering a new initiative to jointly develop and fund military capabilities, aiming to reduce its reliance on the United States. This push, championed by EU defense chief Andrius Kubilius, comes amid growing concerns about the U.S. commitment to NATO and recent actions by Washington to limit the availability of certain military assets to the alliance.
Under the proposed scheme, interested EU member states could allocate a portion of their increased defense budgets towards developing shared battlefield equipment and strategic enablers, which currently include critical assets like air-to-air refueling capabilities, military command and control systems, and space-based intelligence. Kubilius has estimated the total cost of replacing these U.S.-dependent capabilities at approximately €500 billion, acknowledging that this funding would likely need to come from national budgets rather than the next EU long-term budget.
The initiative gained traction after Washington provided NATO allies with a list of military assets it no longer wished to make available, exacerbating existing worries about U.S. support under President Donald Trump. Kubilius discussed the idea with members of the European Defence Union Group, which advocates for greater EU defense integration. Experts and think tanks, such as the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Kiel Institute, have highlighted the urgency and significant cost associated with developing these capabilities independently, with estimates ranging from €200 billion to $1 trillion over a decade or more.
Obstacles to the initiative include potential reluctance from member states to cede procurement control to Brussels, possible U.S. resistance to losing arms sales, and the need for rapid development to deter Russia. However, proponents argue that common European strategic enablers are essential for building an independent European defense, as no single EU country can afford them alone.