Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) is transitioning from overt violence to administrative governance in Mali, focusing on religious messaging and dispute resolution. This strategic shift aims to gain local legitimacy and territory, contrasting with the Malian government's rejection of dialogue.
This shift in tactics by JNIM reflects a strategic evolution in insurgent groups operating in the Sahel, potentially impacting regional stability and the effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts. The disparity in civilian harm between state forces and militant groups also highlights complex local dynamics influencing support for armed actors.
Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) is shifting its operational strategy in Mali, moving away from overt violence towards a more administrative approach to governance. Residents in areas controlled by JNIM report that the group is now focusing on spreading its religious message and resolving local disputes, aiming to establish political legitimacy.
According to Sahel expert Corinne Dufka, this pragmatic approach is a survival strategy for JNIM as it solidifies its presence in rural areas. The group has reportedly reduced indiscriminate violence, with militants in some villages distributing food and medicine instead of issuing threats. This shift is seen as a way for JNIM to gain local acquiescence and for villagers to find a more predictable alternative to the insecurity stemming from the broader conflict.
However, JNIM continues to enforce strict social codes, banning activities such as music and smoking as part of its interpretation of Islamic law. This contrasts with the actions of Malian government forces and their Russian partners, who, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project, have been responsible for three to four times more civilian deaths than jihadist groups over the past two years. This disparity has reportedly fueled local resentment, with some young men joining JNIM as a result.
In April, JNIM reportedly deepened its cooperation with Tuareg-led separatists, including the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), to seize army bases. Bilal Ag Cherif, leader of the FLA, noted positive changes in JNIM, including greater openness to local interpretations of Islam, and argued that a resolution to Mali's instability requires incorporating these groups into political discussions. Despite these developments, Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop has explicitly rejected any dialogue with these organizations, maintaining the government's classification of them as terrorists.