Key facts
- Prospects for a US-Iran peace deal remain uncertain amid conflicting claims from both nations.
Prospects for a US-Iran peace deal remain uncertain as conflicting claims emerge from both sides. President Trump's rhetoric has shifted, while Iran denies full agreement on draft terms, adding to confusion.
The ongoing conflict and uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal have significant implications for global energy markets, regional stability, and international relations, particularly given the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in oil transport.
Prospects for an immediate end to the war between Iran and the US remained uncertain on Friday amid conflicting claims about ongoing negotiations. President Donald Trump appeared to distance himself from earlier comments suggesting a preliminary agreement could be signed, expressing frustration on social media about dealing with Iran.
These remarks followed Iranian news agencies denying that the terms of any deal had been fully agreed, and publishing a supposed draft. Adding to the confusion, Pakistan's prime minister claimed a final agreed text had been reached, though neither Tehran nor Washington confirmed this.
A senior US official suggested an 80 to 85% likelihood of an agreement being signed within days, noting that while most Iranian officials want the deal, internal fractures are being resolved. The official indicated Iran would receive significant economic rewards, including the relief of sanctions, for complying with its obligations.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated an "Islamabad memorandum of understanding" for addressing the US-Israeli war on Iran was closer to finalization, promising transparency. However, IRNA, Iran's state news agency, confirmed broad outlines were being finalized but added that Iran would not relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz.
In contrast, a US official stated the Strait of Hormuz would open and the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports as part of the agreed terms. Trump has repeatedly claimed a deal was imminent since a ceasefire in April, only to revert to threats. Recent days have seen intense clashes, with Trump threatening to seize Iran's oil terminal before claiming a diplomatic breakthrough.
Details leaked by each side suggest significant gaps remain. Trump dismissed Iran's published draft deal as untrue. The draft reportedly included ending conflict, releasing frozen assets, a 60-day period for nuclear talks, suspension of oil sanctions, and reparations from the US. Washington's version stipulated destruction of Iran's nuclear material, no release of frozen funds until demands are met, and an end to Iran's support for regional militant movements.
US forces shot down two Iranian drones attempting to strike commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's military also reportedly stopped a tanker transiting the strait. President Trump faces domestic political pressure due to rising fuel prices and sinking approval ratings, with Republicans concerned about midterm election losses. Iran also faces challenges from sanctions and inflation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated he and Trump were in full agreement to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and discussed limits on Tehran's missile production and support for proxies. However, diplomats and analysts suggest Iran's missile capabilities and support for militants are not part of current negotiations.