Key facts
- Prediction markets are platforms where individuals bet on the outcomes of future events.
- Modern prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi were launched less than seven years ago.
- Historical evidence indicates that bets on papal elections took place as early as the 16th century.
- The University of Iowa established the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988.
Prediction markets, platforms where individuals place bets on the outcomes of future events, have a history that extends far beyond their current primary venues, Polymarket and Kalshi, both launched within the last seven years. Evidence suggests that betting on events like papal elections occurred as early as the 1500s. More contemporary examples include the Iowa Electronic Markets, established by the University of Iowa in 1988, which initially focused on political outcomes.