Key facts
- Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040.
- The bank projects SpaceX's adjusted EBITDA could reach $2.7 trillion in 2040.
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley project SpaceX revenue near $160 billion in 2028.
- SpaceX reported revenue of nearly $20 billion for the LTM period.
- SpaceX's nascent AI division reported $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025.
Morgan Stanley projects that SpaceX's revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA potentially hitting $2.7 trillion, an 80% margin. These forecasts are significantly higher than the company's current performance, which includes nearly $20 billion in LTM revenue and $6 billion in EBITDA, alongside a $4 billion loss. The projections are largely driven by anticipated growth in SpaceX's AI business, which is expected to contribute hundreds of billions by 2030. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also project SpaceX's revenue to reach around $160 billion in 2028, with EBITDA around $110 billion. By 2030, Goldman forecasts revenue exceeding $470 billion and Morgan Stanley projecting nearly $330 billion, with corresponding EBITDA figures of $352 billion and $230 billion, respectively. These projections are considered aggressive, with one analysis suggesting they would require unprecedented US GDP growth. The IPO is reportedly oversubscribed, with a target offering price of $135 per share.