Iran nuclear talks could extend ceasefire if no resolution in 60 days

Key facts

• Iran's Foreign Minister stated a memorandum of understanding with the US to end the war is "never been closer".
• President Trump denied leaks about the deal but expressed optimism, potentially for next week.
• Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire and MoU remains a significant sticking point between the US and Iran.
• Switzerland has offered to host the signing of a potential MoU between Tehran and Washington.
• A Palestinian municipality worker was killed in an Israeli drone attack in central Gaza.
• Renewed Israeli military activity and displacement orders were issued in south Lebanon.

Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has indicated that a memorandum of understanding with the United States to end the ongoing war is "never been closer," urging an end to media speculation until finalization. President Donald Trump reposted Araghchi's statement, having previously criticized Iran for alleged leaks regarding the deal's details, labeling them "fake news." Despite these exchanges, Trump appears keen on a resolution, with reports suggesting a deal could be imminent, possibly within the next week.

However, significant differences persist, particularly concerning Lebanon. The US administration, according to reports, insists that Lebanon will not be part of the initial memorandum, a stance Iran disputes. This divergence on Lebanon's inclusion in any ceasefire or agreement remains a critical sticking point between the two nations. Switzerland has offered to host the signing of a potential MoU between Tehran and Washington should an agreement be reached.

Amidst these diplomatic efforts, regional tensions continue. In Lebanon, renewed Israeli military activity has been reported, including air attacks and wide-ranging forced displacement orders in southern areas, contradicting assurances from the Iranian side about Lebanon being included in a ceasefire. Separately, Iranian officials announced the arrest of a suspected spy in Pishva county. In Gaza, a Palestinian municipality worker was killed in an Israeli drone attack.

Experts suggest that for both the US and Iran, presenting the potential deal as a victory to their respective populations is crucial, though this could also be a source of future conflict if one side perceives the other as having gained an upper hand. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as one of the few tangible outcomes Trump could present as a win, though concerns remain about its future stability.