Key facts
- Nearly 20% of German companies using AI can easily replace degree-educated employees with AI-enabled staff.
- Approximately 15% of companies find it easy to replace experienced staff with less experienced AI-enabled personnel.
- Retail and wholesale sectors show the highest propensity for these AI-driven staff changes.
- Over 27% of German companies anticipate job cuts due to AI in the next five years.
- Industry and trade sectors expect significant job reductions, while construction anticipates no change.
- Technology services are an exception, expecting job growth due to AI.
Nearly 20% of German companies that utilize artificial intelligence find it easy to substitute employees holding university degrees with AI-enabled staff who lack formal qualifications, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute. The research also indicated that approximately 15% of companies find it straightforward to replace experienced employees with AI-enabled personnel possessing less experience.
Anna Ruffert, an Ifo researcher, stated that AI is transforming the world of work and can partially substitute for formal qualifications and experience in certain areas. The retail and wholesale trade sectors reported the highest readiness for such staff transitions.
More broadly, over a quarter of German companies (27.1%) anticipate that artificial intelligence will lead to job reductions within the next five years. Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at Ifo, noted that companies, particularly in manufacturing, expect AI to accelerate structural changes. Only 5.2% of companies foresee the creation of additional jobs, while two-thirds expect no significant change in employment levels. If job cuts do occur, affected companies anticipate an average reduction of around 8%. In the industrial sector, more than a third of companies (37.3%) expect job cuts, a figure mirrored in the trade sector at nearly 30%. Conversely, over 80% of companies in the construction industry believe AI will not impact employee numbers.
However, positive employment trends are also emerging, especially in technology-related services like IT, where some companies foresee employment growth exceeding 10%. Wohlrabe described AI as both a rationalization tool and a catalyst for new job profiles, suggesting that while current employment effects are moderate, AI could significantly alter the German labor market long-term. The primary challenge, he noted, is to translate productivity gains from AI into widespread prosperity without causing major disruption to specific occupational groups. A paper by Thomas Licht and Klaus Wohlrabe highlighted a significant increase in AI usage among German firms from 2023 to 2024, particularly in manufacturing and services.