Arthur Hayes Sells HYPE and NEAR, Cites Macro Headwinds

Key facts Arthur Hayes sold his entire holdings in HYPE and NEAR Protocol. Hayes announced the sale on X on June 4. He cited rising energy prices, three major AI IPOs, and potential political risks as reasons for his decision. Hayes predicts a market peak before September and stated it is time to take profits. Hayes will explain his reasoning in an upcoming essay titled 'Reality Test'. Numbers 3 — major AI IPOs expected $591M — annualized buybacks for HYPE 24% — fully diluted yield on current market cap for HYPE $1B — supply of tokenized equities 90% — tokenized equity volume from outside the US Who Arthur Hayes — BitMEX co-founder who sold HYPE and NEAR holdings HYPE — Cryptocurrency position sold by Hayes NEAR Protocol — Cryptocurrency position sold by Hayes Allium Research — Firm that developed a new valuation model for HYPE Elton Shehdula — Research lead at Allium, authored report on tokenized equities Context Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, announced on June 4 via X that he has sold his complete positions in HYPE and NEAR Protocol. Hayes indicated he is taking profits due to macro headwinds, including rising energy prices influenced by the Iran war and inventory restocking, and the anticipation of three significant AI IPOs before early Q3. He also cited potential political risks associated with former President Donald Trump's stance on AI. Hayes predicts a market peak before September and will detail his reasoning in an upcoming essay titled 'Reality Test'. Separately, Allium Research has developed a new valuation model for HYPE, treating it like an equity analyst would for listed companies. This model uses reported revenue, buyback data, and onchain cash flows, noting $591 million in annualized buybacks and a nearly 24% fully diluted yield on current market cap. Allium also released a report on tokenized equities, stating their supply has reached about $1 billion since mid-2025, with approximately 90% of volume originating outside the US. What's next Hayes's upcoming essay 'Reality Test' is expected to provide further details on his reasoning. Market participants will monitor the performance of HYPE and NEAR following Hayes's sale. Traders will assess the impact of AI IPOs and energy price movements on crypto and equity markets. The market will observe the adoption and impact of new valuation methodologies for crypto assets. Caveats The specific size of Hayes's HYPE and NEAR positions were not disclosed. The exact entry and exit prices for the sold positions were not provided. The specific companies involved in the three AI IPOs were not named. The details of the political risk concerning Donald Trump and AI were not elaborated. The exact methodology and inputs for the HYPE valuation model beyond the cited figures were not fully detailed. FAQ Q: What crypto assets did Arthur Hayes sell? A: Arthur Hayes sold his entire holdings in HYPE and NEAR Protocol. Q: When did Arthur Hayes announce his sales? A: Hayes announced his decision to sell on X on June 4. Q: What reasons did Hayes give for selling? A: He cited rising energy prices linked to the Iran war, three major AI IPOs, and potential political risks, predicting a market peak before September. Q: What is the significance of Hayes's 'Reality Test' essay? A: Hayes stated that his upcoming essay will provide a full explanation of his decision to sell his crypto positions and his market outlook. Q: What is the new valuation approach for HYPE? A: Allium Research developed a model for HYPE that uses reported revenue, buyback data, and onchain cash flows, similar to equity analysis.

Arthur Hayes Sells HYPE and NEAR, Cites Macro Headwinds

PiQ Daily

Key facts

Arthur Hayes Sells HYPE and NEAR, Cites Macro Headwinds

PiQ Daily

Key facts

Get the newsletter.