Key facts
- Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia were granted EU candidate status four years ago.
- New Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar estimates Ukraine's accession could take 10-15 years.
- A recent survey shows a significant portion of Ukrainians expect accession within five to 15 years.
- Progress on required rule of law reforms in Ukraine is slower than anticipated.
- Disagreements among EU member states, including Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, are hindering the accession process.
- Ukraine has opened the first of six enlargement clusters, with unanimity required for further progress.
Four years after being granted EU candidate status, Ukraine's aspirations for swift membership are facing significant headwinds. While President Volodymyr Zelensky initially envisioned rapid progress, the reality has become increasingly complex, marked by internal reforms lagging expectations and political disagreements among member states.
New Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar has suggested Ukraine's accession could take between 10 to 15 years, a timeline that aligns more closely with Ukrainian public sentiment, according to a recent survey. This contrasts with earlier optimistic projections and highlights a growing realism about the protracted nature of the accession process.
Discussions in Brussels reveal a loss of momentum in Ukraine's reform efforts, with EU officials noting a "loss of steam" in the Verkhovna Rada. The European Commission has outlined a 10-point plan for rule of law reforms crucial for membership, but progress has been slower than anticipated.
Political will within some EU member states is also cited as a barrier. Previously, Hungary under Viktor Orban had consistently blocked advancements for Kyiv. While Hungary has since lifted its veto, allowing Ukraine to open its first enlargement cluster, other nations like Poland have raised concerns over potential economic impacts on their own industries. Furthermore, countries like Hungary and Slovakia have voiced objections, arguing that admitting Ukraine before long-awaiting Western Balkan nations would be inequitable.
These hesitations have led to the removal of language suggesting "as soon as possible" accession from EU conclusions, signaling a potential slowdown. Experts like Tinatin Akhvlediani from CEPS suggest this indicates a lack of political will among member states to prioritize enlargement. Despite these challenges, European institutions express hope for continued progress, emphasizing that the work of reform ultimately lies with Ukraine, for whom EU membership is considered vital for statehood.