Key facts
- A decade after the Brexit referendum, the UK economy is widely considered to be smaller than it would have been if it had remained in the EU.
- Economists estimate that Brexit has reduced the UK's GDP by 2% to 8%.
- Brexit has negatively impacted business investment, productivity, and living standards.
- New trade deals with non-EU countries have not compensated for the loss of trade with the EU.
- Net migration to the UK has increased significantly since the implementation of post-Brexit immigration policies.
- A majority of Britons perceive Brexit as a failure.
Ten years after the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union, the economic consequences of Brexit continue to be felt. The decision, made on June 23, 2016, with 51.9% voting to leave, has led to a period of political instability and economic challenges.
Economists largely agree that Brexit has negatively impacted the UK's economic growth, with estimates suggesting a reduction in GDP by 2% to 8%. This has been attributed to decreased business investment, lower productivity, and a decline in living standards. Michael Saunders, a senior adviser at Oxford Economics, described Brexit as a "constant drag on the economy" that diminishes government revenue.
While some of the most dire predictions, such as an immediate recession or housing market crash, did not materialize, the promised benefits of Brexit, including reduced regulation and new trading relationships, have largely failed to materialize. Trade deals with countries like Australia and Japan are considered insignificant compared to the trade lost with the EU, which was valued at £856 billion last year.
Furthermore, Brexit has not achieved its goal of lowering immigration. Net migration has averaged 550,000 annually since 2021, a significant increase from the 2010s, with a record high of nearly 950,000 in 2023. Consequently, a majority of Britons, according to a YouGov poll, view Brexit as a failure. Even Julian Jessop, an economist who supported leaving the EU, acknowledges the initial negative impact, though he believes the costs have been smaller than feared and will fade over time.