Key facts
- Discussions are intensifying within Germany's CDU about replacing Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
- The potential "chancellor swap" (Kanzlertausch) is driven by Merz's low approval ratings and the expected success of the AfD in upcoming regional elections.
- Hendrik Wüst, premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is considered a potential successor.
- The AfD is currently the most popular party in national polls.
- A swap could disrupt Germany's consensus-based political system and potentially trigger a snap election.
Discussions are intensifying within Germany's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) regarding a potential "chancellor swap" (Kanzlertausch) to replace Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been in office for just over a year. The internal dissent follows a recent cabinet reshuffle and precedes crucial regional elections in September, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to achieve significant gains.
Merz has expressed confidence that the situation would calm by September, but pressure is mounting within his own party. The theory behind a potential swap is to stem the fallout from the eastern elections and boost the conservatives' standing, given Merz's low approval ratings. However, replacing a chancellor before the end of his term would be a significant departure from Germany's tradition of political stability and could further destabilize the governing coalition.
Politicians speaking anonymously confirmed the internal debate, citing declining trust in Merz's leadership and his perceived inability to manage the party if the AfD secures power in states like Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and Berlin. A key concern is that individual CDU politicians might support AfD-led state governments, breaking Merz's pledge against forming coalitions with the far-right.
While leading conservative figures like Markus Söder, the leader of the CSU, have publicly backed Merz and warned against "speculating behind the scenes" that could "promote radicals to power," the growing unease within the CDU is notable. National polls show the AfD as the leading party with 28% support, significantly ahead of the CDU's 21%, and only 13% of Germans are satisfied with Merz's performance.