Key facts
- A Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll shows New Zealand's ruling coalition could win 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament.
- The new Opportunity Party's support rose to 6.1%, exceeding the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation.
- Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated the Opportunity Party's policies are incompatible with National's approach.
- Luxon's recent comments about a potential referendum on the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system have drawn criticism from coalition partners.
A new poll released on Friday indicates that New Zealand's current centre-right coalition government may narrowly retain its parliamentary majority in the upcoming November election. The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll suggests the coalition, comprising the National Party, New Zealand First, and ACT, could secure 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament, a majority of just one seat.
However, the poll also revealed a significant surge in support for the newly formed centrist Opportunity Party, which could potentially win eight seats if it clears the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. This marks the first time the Opportunity Party has surpassed this threshold. The opposition Labour Party is projected to lose five seats, with much of that support seemingly shifting to the Opportunity Party. Combined, Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori, and the Opportunity Party could garner 59 seats.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, leader of the National Party, has publicly stated that the Opportunity Party's policies, particularly on taxation, are incompatible with his party's platform, potentially limiting his coalition options. Luxon's own rating as preferred prime minister saw an increase of over four percentage points in the poll, making him the most popular choice for leader.
The poll was conducted between August 1 and 4, surveying 1,000 voters. Notably, it was completed before Luxon indicated on Thursday his openness to a referendum on New Zealand's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system. This suggestion has created internal friction within the coalition, drawing criticism from New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who called the proposal "inexplicable," and opposition from ACT. New Zealand adopted the MMP system in 1996, replacing a first-past-the-post system, and voters reaffirmed their support for MMP in a 2011 referendum.