Key facts
- A potential French presidential election runoff between far-right National Rally leader Jordan Bardella and far-left France Unbowed chief Jean-Luc Mélenchon is increasingly likely.
- Recent polls suggest Mélenchon has a strong chance of reaching the second round.
- Centrist parties are concerned about their inability to unite behind a single candidate.
- Polls indicate Bardella would win decisively against Mélenchon in a runoff.
- Mélenchon's campaign has experienced a resurgence in recent months.
BRUSSELS — A potential French presidential election scenario, where both runoff candidates hail from the political extremes, is increasingly appearing plausible, according to recent polling data. This outcome is viewed as a nightmare by European Union officials, as both the far-right National Rally and the far-left France Unbowed parties hold skeptical views on the EU and NATO.
Jordan Bardella, the leader of the National Rally, has been the frontrunner for the 2027 presidential race. However, the campaign of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the firebrand leader of France Unbowed, has gained significant momentum. Latest polls suggest Mélenchon has a strong possibility of reaching the second round, potentially preventing a centrist challenger from rallying voters against the far right in France, the EU's second-largest economy.
This electoral landscape has caused considerable concern among French centrist politicians. Édouard Philippe, a conservative and a leading mainstream candidate, acknowledged the nightmare scenario of choosing between Mélenchon and the National Rally. Gérald Darmanin, the justice minister, also warned that Mélenchon is emerging as the main challenger to the far right.
Recent polls have sent shockwaves through the French political establishment. One poll by Odoxa showed Mélenchon neck-and-neck with Philippe for second place behind Bardella. Another from Toluna-Harris Interactive indicated Mélenchon could reach the runoff if multiple centrist candidates split the vote, including Philippe and former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.
Despite the looming threat, there is little sign of the centrist candidates uniting. Philippe and Attal are locked in a rivalry, with neither showing signs of withdrawing. Political analyst Bruno Cautrès noted that competition between them could be fatal for their chances and potentially sharpen the appetites of left-wing candidates.
Mélenchon's resurgence is notable, especially given he had been largely written off after a recent municipal election campaign. Despite being one of France's most disliked politicians, his energetic campaign since announcing his presidential bid has earned reluctant admiration. A rally is planned for June 7 in Saint-Denis.
Both the National Rally and France Unbowed appear to be leaning into the prospect of a Bardella-Mélenchon showdown, with online sparring already occurring over economic policies and differing visions for France. Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, has also been active in political discourse.
For the moderate left, Mélenchon's rise is alarming, as polls predict he would lose to the far right in a second-round vote, with support for Bardella exceeding 70 percent in some projections. Socialist Party officials have expressed urgency for the center-left to consolidate its forces, but internal divisions persist.
Raphaël Glucksmann, a prominent centrist hopeful, has faced challenges, including doubts about his campaign skills and internal party tensions. Political analyst Cautrès described Mélenchon as a divisive figure who can also appeal more broadly due to his historical knowledge and strategic thinking, noting he is softening his image and knows how to run a presidential campaign.
The center-right is also feeling the pressure. Mélenchon's strong performance in the 2022 election, securing nearly 22 percent of the first-round vote, suggests he could be a formidable contender. In the latest Odoxa poll, Bardella led the first round with 32 percent, followed by Philippe at 17 percent and Mélenchon at 16 percent. Philippe faces competition from Bruno Retailleau of Les Républicains.