Key facts
- Brazilian brokerage XP identified retail and beverage stocks as market favorites for the World Cup.
- XP's model gave France a 9% chance of winning the World Cup, followed by Spain, Argentina, and Brazil.
- Goldman Sachs' rival model placed Spain as the favorite with a 26% probability.
- XP expects the tournament to create tailwinds for tourism, transport, themed consumption, and streaming globally.
- In Brazil, XP sees opportunities in apparel, electronics, and food retail, as well as beverages.
- Food processor MBRF anticipates a sales jump of up to 50% due to World Cup gatherings.
Brazilian brokerage XP has identified retail and beverage stocks as potential market favorites during the upcoming World Cup. The brokerage combined a probabilistic model of the competition with an investor playbook, suggesting that both soccer giants and consumer names could perform well. XP's simulation-based model gave France the highest chance of winning the trophy at 9%, followed by Spain, Argentina, and Brazil. However, a rival model from Goldman Sachs placed Spain as the favorite with a 26% probability. XP anticipates that the 48-team tournament, held in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will generate positive impacts on global tourism, transport, themed consumption, and streaming services. Within Brazil, specific opportunities are seen in apparel, electronics, and food retail, as well as beverages. Grupo SBF, the distributor of Nike in Brazil, is considered a direct play on World Cup enthusiasm, while brewer Ambev is noted for its potential in the food and drinks sector. Food processor MBRF expects sales related to World Cup gatherings to increase by as much as 50% compared to the previous tournament, aided by promotions and a favorable match schedule.