Key facts
- Galaxy Digital launched an institutional OTC prediction market trading desk.
- The desk aims to improve accessibility and trading capabilities for large investors in prediction markets.
- The first trade executed was a $10 million event swap with hedge fund Arca, tied to the CLARITY Act.
- Galaxy acts as a principal counterparty, handling large trades without impacting public order books.
- Prediction markets cleared over $60 billion in volume in 2026, but liquidity for large trades remains thin.
Galaxy Digital has launched an institutional over-the-counter (OTC) prediction market trading desk, aiming to enhance access and trading capabilities for large investors. The desk, operating within Galaxy's Global Markets unit, focuses on non-sports event contracts listed on Kalshi and Polymarket. Galaxy acts as a principal counterparty, absorbing risk for large trades that could otherwise move public order books. The inaugural trade was a $10 million event swap with crypto hedge fund Arca, tied to the passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before 2027. Galaxy's research team estimates a 75% probability of the bill passing, with an estimated signing date around August 3, while current market pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket ranges from 50% to 73%. Prediction markets saw over $60 billion in volume in 2026, but liquidity for large trades remains a challenge.