Key facts
- El Nino has arrived and may weaken India's summer monsoon.
- Rainfed crops like rice and maize are at risk in India.
- There are concerns for agriculture-dependent livelihoods and food security in India.
- India's monsoon rainfall is forecast at 90% of the Long Period Average.
- This is the weakest monsoon forecast for India since 2015.
- Crops like pulses, oilseeds, and paddy may be impacted in India.
- There are fears of increased food inflation and weakened rural incomes in India.
- El Nino is projected to affect global crop yields.
- Rice and sugar production are among the global commodities expected to be impacted.
- Fish stocks may also be affected by El Nino.
The newly begun El Nino phase poses a significant risk to India's summer monsoon, potentially weakening it and stressing rainfed crops like rice and maize, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). This development raises concerns about agriculture-dependent livelihoods and food security, particularly in vulnerable regions of India.
Forecasts indicate a potential below-normal monsoon season for India, with rainfall predicted at 90% of the Long Period Average. This is the weakest forecast since 2015 and is expected to impact the output of various crops, including pulses, oilseeds, and paddy. The potential for reduced crop yields has led to fears of increased food inflation and weakened rural incomes across the country.
Globally, El Nino is also projected to affect the production of key commodities. These include rice and sugar, with potential impacts on fish stocks also noted. Further details on these global implications are available in the Business of Food newsletter.