Key facts
- OPEC crude output has fallen to its lowest level in decades.
- Global oil stockpiles may fall to their lowest levels since 2003 by December.
- Gold prices are trading around $4,465 per ounce.
- Central banks purchased 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026.
- Copper prices are trading just above $14,000 a ton.
- Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price target to $13,735 a ton.
- Soybean exports increased week-over-week, with cumulative exports up 5.6% year-to-date.
- Container shipping rates on the Asia-to-US route have surged 109% since the start of the Iran war.
- Southwest Airlines anticipates its Boeing 737 MAX 7 will enter service in 2027.
- The UN's World Food Programme reports millions facing acute hunger due to the Iran conflict fallout.
Global markets are grappling with the multifaceted impacts of the Middle East conflict, which is reshaping oil trade balances, affecting inflation, and influencing monetary policy. OPEC crude output has fallen to its lowest level in decades, attributed to tightening U.S. naval blockades on Iran and disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. Energy Information Administration warns that global oil stockpiles could fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December, their lowest since 2003, as a means to compensate for lost Middle Eastern output. This scenario has contributed to record high crack spreads, significantly impacting refiner profits and airline operations.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also driving volatility in precious metals. Gold prices are declining, with some reports indicating a weekly loss of about 1.6% and trading around $4,465 per ounce, despite ongoing tensions and elevated oil prices. Factors contributing to this decline include higher interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike. However, hopes for a Middle East ceasefire and a weaker U.S. dollar have provided some temporary support, with gold and silver futures showing gains on certain days. Central banks purchased 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, providing a structural floor for the metal.
In agriculture, soybean futures have shown mixed performance. They are trading higher, supported by a rebound in energy prices and reports of Chinese demand, alongside strong crush margins. However, other reports indicate soybean futures settled lower due to an 8% week-over-week drop in export sales and increased competition from Brazil. Corn and wheat futures are facing pressure, with mixed activity influenced by recent flash sales, weather forecasts, and rainfall in China. Farmers globally are contending with dwindling fertilizer supplies and soaring fuel costs due to the conflict, threatening crop yields and potentially increasing food prices, particularly impacting developing nations.
Copper prices are nearing record highs, trading just above $14,000 a ton, approaching their January all-time high. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 price target by over 10% to $13,735 a ton, citing a significantly weaker supply outlook due to disruptions at major mining operations. Citigroup has also raised copper price forecasts amid projected supply shortfalls. Separately, Southwest Airlines anticipates its Boeing 737 MAX 7 will enter service in 2027, exploring airport lounges, trans-oceanic flights, and premium seating as part of a broader transformation, and is considering Amazon's Leo satellite network for Wi-Fi.