Key facts
- US tomato prices rose approximately 40% between January and April, the largest three-month increase since 2006.
- Severe weather, including freezes in Florida and drought/blight in Mexico, significantly impacted supply.
- An estimated 80% of Florida's tomato production suffered losses due to winter storms.
- Drought and fungal disease affected key growing regions in Mexico.
- Wholesale prices for Roma and mature green tomatoes hit 25-year highs and stayed elevated for over two months.
- Prices are expected to remain above 2025 levels through August, with limited substantial decreases anticipated.
US tomato prices have surged significantly, with a 40% increase between January and April marking the largest three-month rise since 2006. This spike is attributed to a combination of severe weather events impacting major growing regions in Florida and Mexico, alongside other factors like US import duties and an appreciating peso.
Florida experienced one of its most damaging freeze events in history during late December and January, leading to an estimated 80% loss in tomato production and $164 million in projected damages. Simultaneously, Mexico's key growing regions, particularly Sinaloa, faced drought conditions that reduced water for irrigation and unseasonal rains in January that fostered fungal diseases like early blight.
These supply disruptions have pushed wholesale prices for Roma tomatoes and mature green tomatoes to 25-year highs, remaining elevated for over two months. The price increases have extended to other tomato varieties as consumers sought substitutes. While prices are beginning to ease with the arrival of new harvests from California and other US regions, significant relief is not expected soon, with prices likely to stay above 2025 levels through August.
Economists anticipate that increasingly frequent extreme weather events linked to climate change will make such food-price shocks more common, potentially contributing to more enduring inflation.