Key facts
- Potential Tropical Cyclone One has formed off the Texas coast.
- The storm is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated higher totals.
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coast.
- Governor Greg Abbott declared a disaster for 101 Texas counties.
- While major oil production locations are outside the direct path of tropical storm force winds, disruptions to helicopter operations for crew changes are possible.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One has formed off the Texas coast, prompting warnings of heavy rainfall and dangerous flash flooding, particularly impacting the region's energy infrastructure. The U.S. National Hurricane Center issued an advisory Tuesday, noting the system had maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and was located about 65 miles southwest of Corpus Christi.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast, stretching from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. The storm is forecast to move roughly parallel to the Texas coast before making landfall in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Regardless of further strengthening, the system is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall through Thursday to the Texas coast and much of Louisiana, with isolated totals potentially reaching 12 inches. The NHC also warned of dangerous storm surge.
In response to the threat, Governor Greg Abbott declared a disaster for 101 counties in Texas on Monday. While the storm is not expected to be exceptionally strong, according to Tony Dupont, COO at Earth Science Associates, its impact on energy assets is a concern.
Andrew Polk, a weather risk manager at DTN, stated that major oil production locations in the Gulf are currently outside the forecasted path of tropical storm force winds. However, he noted potential disruptions to helicopter operations, which could delay crew changes due to winds and thunderstorms. Wave heights are predicted to increase to between 7 and 9 feet, primarily affecting operations in the water with lift boats and diving activities.
The U.S. Gulf of Mexico produced nearly 2 million barrels of crude oil per day in March, representing about 14% of total U.S. output, with companies like Shell, BP, Chevron, and Occidental being major operators. The Gulf Coast refining region, from Corpus Christi to the Mississippi River, accounts for roughly half of the U.S.'s total refining capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day. Major refineries include Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva Enterprises' Port Arthur plant, Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay plant, and ExxonMobil's facilities in Beaumont, Baytown, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. LNG facilities operated by Cheniere and Venture Global are also located in the coastal region.