Key facts
- OPEC has reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day.
- The downgrade is partly due to a 60,000 b/d cut to Indian demand growth and an anticipated 40,000 b/d fall in Middle East consumption.
- OPEC projects a strong rebound in global oil demand for 2027, forecasting a 1.73 million b/d increase.
- Non-OPEC+ supply growth is forecast at 630,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027.
- OPEC+ crude output fell by 185,000 b/d in May to 33.13 million b/d.
OPEC has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the second consecutive month, now projecting an increase of 970,000 barrels per day (b/d), down from its previous estimate of 1.17 million b/d. The downgrade is partly due to a 60,000 b/d cut to Indian demand growth and an anticipated 40,000 b/d fall in Middle East consumption. OPEC noted that Middle East demand in March was approximately 500,000 b/d lower than a year earlier, flagging "downside risk" from the "ongoing oil market situation."
Despite the near-term revision, OPEC anticipates a strong rebound in global oil demand next year, supported by higher growth forecasts for China and India. The group projects demand to rise by 1.73 million b/d in 2027, an increase from last month's forecast of 1.54 million b/d. OPEC maintained its non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast at 630,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027. Secondary sources indicate that OPEC+ crude output, including Mexico, fell by 185,000 b/d in May to 33.13 million b/d.