Key facts
- Retail gasoline and diesel sales in northwest Mexico fell 13% in June year-on-year.
- Combined sales in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Chihuahua dropped to 137,500 b/d from 158,500 b/d.
- Baja California experienced the steepest decline, with demand falling 14% to 47,000 b/d.
- Gasoline demand accounted for most of the decline, falling 14% to 107,000 b/d.
- Premium gasoline sales saw the steepest drop at 28%.
Retail gasoline and diesel sales across northwestern Mexico experienced a significant decline of 13% in June compared to the previous year. This weakening demand was observed in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Chihuahua.
Combined sales in these four states fell to approximately 137,500 barrels per day (b/d) in June, down from 158,500 b/d a year prior, according to Argus calculations based on data from the national energy commission (CNE). Baja California, the region's largest fuel market, saw the steepest drop, with demand decreasing by 14% to 47,000 b/d. Baja California Sur also reported a 14% decline, while Chihuahua and Sonora each experienced a 12% decrease.
Gasoline demand was the primary driver of the overall decline, with combined regular and premium gasoline sales falling by 14% to 107,000 b/d. Premium gasoline sales were particularly hard-hit, dropping by 28%, while regular gasoline sales decreased by 11%. Diesel and ULSD sales also weakened, falling by 9% across the region.
The data reflects sales at retail fuel stations and excludes direct diesel supply to industrial consumers. The slowdown was not isolated to border markets but also affected tourism-oriented areas like Baja California Sur, indicating a broad regional weakening.
Meanwhile, closures of refineries in California, including Phillips 66's Los Angeles complex and Valero's Benicia refinery, have removed significant refining capacity. This could tighten the availability of export cargoes for Baja California. However, new pipeline projects like the Western Gateway system are being developed to move fuel from Texas to Arizona and potentially California, which could eventually influence supply to northern Mexico.