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EU, UK grain production estimates fall due to heatwaves

Created at 10 Jul · 3:00 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Heatwaves and droughts across Europe are expected to significantly reduce grain production this year, with the EU forecasting an 8% to 9% drop in maize, sunflower, and soya bean yields. This decline exacerbates existing pressures on food prices, already impacted by the war in Ukraine and rising input costs.

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Key Numbers

20 yearslowest French corn crop in
8% to 9%forecasted drop in EU maize, sunflower, soya bean yields
2%cereal yield decrease vs five-year average
¤13 billionestimated economic losses for EU agriculture in 2003
36%record drop in maize yield in Italy in 2003

Who's Involved

COCERAL
forecasting lowest French corn crop in 20 years
EU
forecasting crop yield drops due to heatwaves
Vladimir Putin
refusing to allow grain shipments from Ukraine

↳ Why This Matters

The projected decline in grain production across Europe due to heatwaves will exacerbate existing pressures on global food prices, already heightened by the war in Ukraine and increased input costs for farmers.

Key facts

  • Heatwaves and droughts are expected to cause sharp declines in key crop yields across Europe this year.
  • The EU forecasts an 8% to 9% reduction in maize, sunflower, and soya bean yields due to hot weather.
  • Cereal yields are approximately 2% lower than the five-year average.
  • France's corn crop is anticipated to be the lowest in two decades.
  • The ongoing war in Ukraine has contributed to higher food prices by increasing fuel and fertilizer costs.

Europe is facing significantly reduced crop yields this year due to widespread heatwaves and droughts, a situation that is expected to worsen global food price inflation. The European Union forecasts an 8% to 9% drop in yields for key crops such as maize, sunflower, and soya beans. Cereal yields are already down approximately 2% compared to the five-year average. In France, the corn crop is projected to be the lowest in 20 years.

The extreme weather conditions have coincided with critical crop development stages, and low water reservoir levels are hindering irrigation efforts. These yield reductions come at a time when global food supplies are already under pressure due to the war in Ukraine, which has disrupted exports and increased the costs of essential farming inputs like fuel and fertilizer. While a fragile deal has been reached to allow some Ukrainian grain shipments, the overall impact on food prices remains significant.

Historical data from the summer of 2003 highlights the severe impact of extreme heatwaves on European agriculture. In that year, Italy experienced a record 36% drop in maize yield, and France saw a 30% reduction in its maize grain crop. The agricultural sector in the European Union incurred an estimated ¤13 billion in economic losses during that period.

Frequently asked questions

The French corn crop is expected to be the lowest in 20 years due to the heatwave.

Maize, sunflower, and soya bean yields are forecast to drop by about 8% to 9%.

The war has raised prices of fuel and fertilizer, essential for farming, and has disrupted grain exports from Ukraine.

The 2003 heatwave caused significant crop yield reductions, with an estimated ¤13 billion in economic losses for the EU agricultural sector.

What Happens Next

01Monitor further crop yield reports from agricultural bodies.
02Assess the impact of reduced yields on global food prices and supply chains.
03Observe the effectiveness of the fragile grain shipment deal from Ukraine.

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How It Developed

Europe experienced extreme heatwaves and droughts during the summer.
Maize, sunflower, and soya bean yields are forecast by the EU to drop by about 8% to 9%.
Cereal yields are down about 2% overall compared to the five-year average.
Water reservoirs in many regions are at levels too low for irrigation.
The French corn crop is expected to be the lowest in 20 years.
The war in Ukraine has increased fuel and fertilizer prices, further raising food costs.
A fragile deal on grain shipments from Ukraine has been reached.

Sources

T1
Heat wave drops grain production estimates in EU, UKWorld Grain
T2
Falls in Europe's crop yields due to heatwaves could worsen price ...theguardian.com
T2
C1.2.2 European heatwave impact on the agricultural sector ...archive.ipcc.ch

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