Key facts
- Russia's oil production forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been lowered by the IEA.
- The downgrade is attributed to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
- The IEA cut its 2024 and 2025 Russian supply outlook by 85,000 bpd and 150,000 bpd respectively.
- For 2026, the forecast was cut by 85,000 bpd to 8.9 million bpd, and for 2027 by 150,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd.
- Russia's crude oil production in June was 8.86 million bpd, below its OPEC+ target.
- Russia has increased crude oil exports due to a domestic fuel crisis and limited storage capacity.
- Russia has banned diesel exports amid Ukrainian efforts to reduce fuel supply.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downward its projections for Russia's oil production in 2026 and 2027, citing the impact of escalating Ukrainian drone attacks on the nation's energy infrastructure. The agency noted that damage to refineries, storage facilities, and transportation assets underpins this weaker production outlook.
The IEA has consequently reduced its Russian supply outlook for the current year and next by 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 150,000 bpd, respectively, anticipating an average production of 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period. For 2026, the supply forecast was cut by 85,000 bpd to 8.9 million bpd. The 2027 forecast saw a more significant revision, down by 150,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd.
Despite these downgrades, Russia's crude oil production reportedly increased to 8.86 million bpd in June from 8.74 million bpd in May, according to IEA estimates. However, this figure remained 910,000 bpd below Russia's implied OPEC+ target of 9.76 million bpd.
In response to Ukrainian efforts to cripple its refineries, leading to a domestic fuel crisis and limited storage capacity, Russia has increased its crude oil exports. Ukraine has expanded its offensive to target fuel supply routes and vessels, in addition to refineries. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged these fuel supply challenges, and Russia has implemented a ban on diesel exports.