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Argentina soy output forecast slightly lower amid El Niño, fertilizer costs

Created at 10 Jul · 1:12 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Argentina's soybean production for the 2025-26 season is projected to see a slight increase to 49.5 million metric tons, despite an expected decrease in planted acreage. Factors like El Niño and fertilizer prices could influence the harvest.

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Key Numbers

40.8 million acres2025-26 Argentine soybean acreage forecast
49.5 MMT2025-26 Argentine soybean production forecast
-2.5 million acresExpected reduction in soybean planting
43.2 million acres2024-25 Argentine soybean acreage estimate
49 MMT2024-25 Argentine soybean production estimate
41.5 MMT2024-25 Argentine soybean crush forecast
42 MMT2025-26 Argentine soybean crush forecast
4.7 MMT2024-25 Argentine whole soybean export estimate
5.5 MMT2025-26 Argentine whole soybean export forecast

Who's Involved

USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
Issued report forecasting Argentine soy output and acreage
Argentine farmers
Expected to reduce soybean planting and return to corn rotations
Argentina soy output forecast slightly lower amid El Niño, fertilizer costs

↳ Why This Matters

Argentina is a major global supplier of soybeans and their derivatives. Changes in its production and planting decisions can impact global supply chains, commodity prices, and trade dynamics, particularly affecting key importing nations like China.

Key facts

  • Argentina's soybean acreage is projected to decrease to 40.8 million acres in the 2025-26 season.
  • Despite reduced acreage, soybean production is forecast to slightly increase to 49.5 million metric tons.
  • The pullback in soybean planting is attributed to farmers returning to corn rotations.
  • Soybean growers are expected to reduce planting by nearly 2.5 million acres.
  • The FAS report highlights potential impacts from El Niño and fertilizer prices on the 2026-27 harvest.

Soybean growers in Argentina are expected to reduce planting by nearly 2.5 million acres in the upcoming season, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). This pullback is largely due to farmers reverting to traditional corn rotations following a year where pest concerns drove a record expansion of soybean acreage.

Despite the anticipated decrease in planted area to 40.8 million acres for the 2025-26 season, the FAS forecasts a slight increase in soybean production to 49.5 million metric tons. This projection is up from the current estimate for the 2024-25 season, which saw acreage at 43.2 million and production at 49 MMT.

The FAS report indicates that first or early-planted soybeans will likely see the largest reduction in acreage, though this will be partially offset by an expected increase in second (late) soybean plantings. The agency also forecasts soybean crush to rise to 42 MMT in 2025-26, with the crushing sector expected to operate above 60% of capacity. Whole soybean exports are also projected to increase to 5.5 MMT in 2025-26, with China being a primary destination.

Factors such as El Niño and fertilizer prices are noted as potential influences on the 2026-27 harvest. The report also touches on Argentina's role in global soybean oil and meal markets, with processors expected to continue importing soybeans, primarily from Paraguay, to maintain crush volumes.

Frequently asked questions

Farmers are reverting to traditional corn rotations after a soy-heavy year driven by pest concerns that devastated corn crops previously.

The FAS forecasts a slight gain in production to 49.5 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season.

El Niño and fertilizer prices are identified as potential influences on the 2026-27 harvest.

What Happens Next

01Monitor El Niño and fertilizer price developments for their impact on the 2026-27 harvest.
02Observe shifts in global trade dynamics, especially U.S.-China trade relations, for potential impacts on Argentine soybean exports.

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How It Developed

FAS forecasts Argentina's 2025-26 soybean acreage to fall to 40.8 million acres.
FAS projects a slight gain in production to 49.5 MMT for the 2025-26 season.
Soybean growers are expected to reduce planting by nearly 2.5 million acres.
Farmers are reverting to traditional corn rotations after a soy-heavy year driven by pest concerns.

Sources

T1
FAS sees slight dip in Argentine soy outputWorld Grain
T2
Report Name: Oilseeds and Products Annualapps.fas.usda.gov
T2
Argentina Soybean Acres Seen Falling by -2.5 Million Next ...vantrumpreport.com

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