Key facts
- El Niño has officially begun, potentially leading to turbocharged weather globally.
- The phenomenon can cause severe droughts, food insecurity, and electricity shortages.
- Low rainfall and river flows may reduce hydropower generation in Europe.
- Extreme heat can decrease solar panel efficiency.
- Crop failures are a risk in various regions, impacting global food supplies.
- Europe faces increased drought risk, potentially affecting agriculture and power generation.
Climate scientists have confirmed the official start of El Niño, a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This can lead to higher global temperatures and more extreme weather events. The last El Niño, from May 2023 to March 2024, contributed to record heat, heatwaves, wildfires, and floods globally.
Experts at the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education warn that El Niño can trigger severe knock-on effects, including drought, food insecurity, and electricity shortages. Low rainfall and river flows can particularly impact regions reliant on hydropower, potentially leading to increased costs and reliance on fossil fuels. Norway, for instance, has already experienced a significant energy deficit due to low snow reserves from a warm, dry winter.
Extreme heat also affects solar power generation, as photovoltaic cells lose efficiency at higher temperatures. For every degree above 25°C, solar panel efficiency drops by approximately 0.4 to 0.5 percent. This phenomenon, known as the solar paradox, means more sun does not always equate to more power.
Regarding food security, El Niño could worsen shortages over the next two years. Key crops like maize and beans may fail in vulnerable areas, leading to insecurity and income loss. Irrigated crops in regions such as Colombia, North-East Brazil, and India may face restrictions or over-reliance on groundwater. The EU, which imports a substantial amount of food annually, is also at risk, with staples like wheat, maize, and cocoa susceptible to extreme climate events.
Experts predict El Niño will trigger severe global droughts in 2026 and 2027, with Europe facing increased risks of heatwaves and wildfires. Low river flows could lead to restrictions on agriculture and the use of cooling water in power stations. Scientists emphasize that drought is not solely an environmental issue but affects food systems, energy production, economies, and human well-being, necessitating proactive resilience-building.
While El Niño's arrival has garnered significant media attention, scientists caution against focusing solely on its strength and urge a greater emphasis on the connection to ongoing climate change. They note that human-caused climate change is driving more substantial long-term temperature rises than the temporary increases associated with El Niño.