World Bank Cuts Myanmar Growth Forecast Amid Fuel Shock

Despite tentative signs of stabilization, the World Bank noted that the economy remains under significant strain due to ongoing shocks that have revealed deep structural flaws. The surge in energy prices has disrupted economic activities by increasing costs for transportation, logistics, production, and distribution, while also heightening demand for foreign exchange to import fuel.

Even before the current energy crisis, key economic indicators such as output, sales, and profits had not recovered to pre-2021 coup levels. The devastating earthquake in the previous year also contributed to economic disruption. The World Bank identified several risks to the economic outlook, including the ongoing civil war, disruptions to trade and logistics, weaker export earnings, and energy price volatility.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the 2021 military coup that ousted the elected civilian government. The country experienced further economic disruption from a major earthquake in March 2025. The economy had shown modest improvement in early 2026 before the Middle East conflict exacerbated the situation. In April, former junta leader Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency following a military-engineered election widely criticized internationally.