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SpaceX IPO valuation questioned by Morningstar

Created at 3 Jun · 6:47 AM13 sources↑ Market-relevant13 events
IN SHORT

Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens estimates SpaceX's value at $780 billion, significantly below the company's target IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion. Despite strong revenue growth in Starlink, SpaceX reported a $4.95 billion net loss last year.

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Key Numbers

$1.75 trillionSpaceX IPO valuation target
$780 billionMorningstar's estimated value for SpaceX
55%SpaceX's estimated undervaluation by Morningstar
50%Starlink revenue increase year-over-year
$4.95 billionSpaceX net loss last year
3%Percentage of SpaceX shares offered to public investors
June 12SpaceX IPO date

Who's Involved

SpaceX
Company preparing for IPO
Morningstar
Investment research firm providing valuation analysis
Nicholas Owens
Morningstar analyst who authored the SpaceX valuation report
Elon Musk
CEO and controlling shareholder of SpaceX
Chad Anderson
Founder of VC firm Space Capital, an early investor
SpaceX IPO valuation questioned by Morningstar

↳ Why This Matters

The IPO could be the largest in history, potentially making Elon Musk a trillionaire, but significant valuation concerns exist due to the company's lack of profitability and reliance on future growth.

Key facts

  • SpaceX is preparing for an IPO with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion.
  • Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens estimates SpaceX's value at $780 billion.
  • SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.95 billion last year.
  • Starlink revenue increased 50% year-over-year.
  • Only 3% of SpaceX's shares will be offered to public investors.
  • SpaceX's IPO is scheduled for June 12.

SpaceX is preparing for an IPO with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion. Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens has questioned this valuation, estimating the company's worth at approximately $780 billion, a 55% discount. Owens cited SpaceX's strengths in its launch business and Starlink satellite internet operation, but also noted potential challenges from its AI business and speculative projects. Despite the hype, SpaceX is not profitable, reporting a net loss of $4.95 billion last year, partly due to heavy AI-related expenditures. Starlink, its primary revenue source, saw a 50% year-over-year increase. The high valuation is largely attributed to future expectations and Elon Musk's reputation. Only 3% of SpaceX's shares will be available to the public. Owens suggests investors wait for the initial hype to subside and for existing shareholders to potentially offload stakes, as SpaceX plans a novel approach to lock-up periods allowing early investors to sell portions of their holdings relatively soon after the IPO.

Frequently asked questions

SpaceX is targeting an IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion.

Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens estimates SpaceX's value at $780 billion, approximately 55% below the IPO target.

Concerns include the company's lack of profitability, significant net loss last year, and reliance on future expectations for its AI business and speculative projects.

SpaceX's IPO is scheduled for June 12.

Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens suggests that smart investors may be better off waiting to buy shares in the coming months after the initial hype and potential share offloading by early investors.

What Happens Next

01SpaceX's IPO is scheduled for June 12.
02SpaceX will file its first quarterly earnings report covering the second quarter.
03Existing shareholders may begin selling portions of their holdings weeks after the IPO, depending on stock performance.

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Cadence

How It Developed

3 Jun · 10:31 PM
SpaceX's IPO target is now $75 billion, with its bitcoin treasury and liquidity risks drawing focus.
CoinDesk via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 9:02 PM
SpaceX's IPO is expected to be the largest ever and could make Elon Musk a trillionaire.
Yahoo News | Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 9:01 PM
The new article states SpaceX's IPO could be the largest in history and may make Elon Musk a trillionaire.
Yahoo News | Top Stories via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 8:46 PM
New article details SpaceX's record $75 billion IPO plan to fund AI and launches, potentially increasing focus on satellite competition.
Bloomberg | Markets via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 8:43 PM
Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target, citing AI and longshot projects despite Starlink growth.
Fortune via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 8:21 PM
The new article emphasizes investor underestimation of SpaceX's satellite threat, a key factor in AT&T's stock decline.
MarketWatch via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 8:15 PM
New article suggests SpaceX's $2T valuation target is driven by aerospace advancements, not just Starlink's competitive threat to AT&T.
Yahoo News | Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 5:36 PM
AT&T's stock experienced its worst day in 8 months due to investor focus on the SpaceX Starlink threat.
MarketWatch | Top Stories via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 5:33 PM
Oppenheimer downgraded AT&T stock and removed its price target due to Starlink competition, causing AT&T's stock to drop 4.4%.
CoinCentral via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 2:20 PM
This article restates earlier reporting on Oppenheimer's prediction of Starlink's disruption of the US communications industry.
PiQSuite
3 Jun · 2:20 PM
Oppenheimer predicts Starlink will disrupt the $1.6 trillion US communications industry, potentially impacting AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
Reuters via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 8:59 AM
SpaceX's IPO plans include a $135 share price, a June 12 potential launch, and 30% retail allocation.
CoinCentral via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 6:02 AM
SpaceX is preparing for a historic IPO, seeking to raise $75 billion and achieve a $1.75 trillion valuation.
Economic Times via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
SpaceX's historic $75 billion IPO: Opportunity or risk for investors?m.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX IPO Could Be the Largest in History. Should You Buy the Shares?m.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX will disrupt $1.6 trillion US communications industry, Oppenheimer saysm.piqsuite.com
T1
AT&T's stock is seeing its worst day in 8 months as the SpaceX threat comes into focusm.piqsuite.com
T1
AT&T (T) Stock Drops 4% as SpaceX Looms Over Broadband Businessm.piqsuite.com
T1
AT&T's stock sees its worst day in 8 months as the SpaceX threat comes into focusm.piqsuite.com
T1
What's justifying SpaceX's $2T valuation target ahead of IPO?m.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX Seeks $75 Billion in Record IPO Plan to Fund AI, Launchm.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX's IPO is set to be the biggest ever and could make Elon Musk a trillionairem.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX may be the biggest IPO ever, but Morningstar says it is overvalued by half and the smart investors will wait out the hype and buy laterm.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX targets record $75 billion IPO as bitcoin treasury and liquidity risks draw focusm.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX's IPO is set to be the biggest ever and could make Elon Musk a trillionairem.piqsuite.com
T1
SpaceX will disrupt $1.6 trillion US communications industry, Oppenheimer saysm.piqsuite.com

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