Key facts
- Robotaxi deployments are increasing in major US cities.
- Waymo and Tesla are leading the expansion of autonomous vehicle fleets.
- Tesla robotaxis have an accident every 100,000-120,000 miles; Waymo has one every 150,000-175,000 miles.
Robotaxi services are scaling up in major US cities with companies like Waymo and Tesla deploying more vehicles. Despite potential safety advantages per mile, highly visible accidents are creating regulatory and political headwinds, leading to increased scrutiny from agencies and local governments.
Robotaxi services are entering a scaling phase across major U.S. cities, with companies like Waymo and Tesla expanding their driverless fleets. While autonomous vehicles may have fewer accidents per mile than human drivers, highly visible incidents in real-world conditions are creating significant regulatory and political challenges. Goldman Sachs analysts note that deployments are gaining momentum, with Waymo operating a larger fleet (over 3,800 vehicles) across more cities than Tesla's smaller fleet in Texas (around 42 vehicles). Accident data from July 2025 to April 2026 suggests Tesla robotaxis have an accident every 100,000 to 120,000 miles, while Waymo averages one every 150,000 to 175,000 miles. Despite this, Waymo's app usage growth has slowed year-over-year. Federal safety agencies are investigating Waymo, and cities like New York, Boston, Seattle, and San Francisco are considering restrictions, indicating a growing regulatory headwind for the industry.
The expansion of robotaxis signifies a major shift in transportation, but increasing regulatory scrutiny and public perception challenges due to accidents could slow adoption and impact the profitability of autonomous vehicle companies.