Key facts
- A piece of SpaceX rocket debris is expected to impact the Moon on August 5, 2026.
- The debris is the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched in January 2025.
- NASA scientists are monitoring the situation.
- Experts are uncertain if the impact will be visible from Earth.
- The four-tonne rocket component is traveling at over two kilometers per second.
A piece of SpaceX rocket debris is expected to collide with the Moon on August 5, 2026, according to NASA scientists and astronomer Bill Gray. The upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket, launched in January 2025 to carry two lunar landers, is on an unplanned trajectory toward the lunar surface. The four-tonne component is traveling at more than two kilometers per second.
Experts are currently debating whether the impact will be visible from Earth. Some suggest the resulting dust cloud could be illuminated by the Sun and become visible if the collision occurs at the edge of the lunar disc. However, William Cooke, a manager at NASA, stated that the impact will likely be impossible to see from Earth.
Astronomer Bill Gray, who developed the Guide astronomy software to track near-Earth objects, published the calculations for the potential collision. While this specific impact is unplanned, the increasing volume of space debris raises concerns about future incidents. A similar event four years ago, suspected to involve Chinese rocket debris, was reported by NASA, though China rejected the claims. Planned impacts on the Moon are also conducted for research purposes.