Key facts
- J.P. Morgan upgraded Tesla to 'neutral' from 'underweight'.
- The brokerage raised Tesla's price target to $475 from $145.
- Analysts believe Tesla's valuation is increasingly driven by autonomous driving and robotics.
- Tesla's revenue is projected to more than double by 2030.
- J.P. Morgan highlighted Tesla's vertical integration across hardware and software.
J.P. Morgan upgraded Tesla to 'neutral' from 'underweight', shifting its view to focus on the company's long-term growth potential in autonomous driving, robotics, and AI rather than near-term earnings. The brokerage significantly raised its price target for Tesla shares to $475 from $145. Analysts believe Tesla's valuation is increasingly influenced by its expansion into robotaxis, humanoid robots, AI chips, and software services, which could transform its earnings profile over the next decade. J.P. Morgan highlighted Tesla's strong vertical integration across hardware and software as a key advantage. The firm projects Tesla's revenue to more than double from approximately $95 billion in 2025 to around $203 billion by 2030, with nearly half of this growth expected from services and newer businesses. Earnings per share are estimated to potentially inflect beyond 2028, jumping nearly threefold to about $7.50 by 2030 from an estimated $1.95 in 2026. J.P. Morgan values Tesla across five interconnected markets—automotive, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots, and infrastructure licensing—with a combined potential addressable market of about $3.9 trillion by 2035. However, the brokerage cautioned that significant execution risks remain, particularly concerning regulatory approvals, safety validation, and scaling new technologies. Separately, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon praised Elon Musk as the 'Edison of our time' during a virtual interview with Musk, part of a road show event hosted by the bank for SpaceX's potential IPO. Dimon noted Musk's visionary leadership and the company's future prospects, recalling a past feud between the two that has since been resolved.