US midterm election betting surpasses 2024 congressional total

Betting on the upcoming U.S. midterm elections has reached $133 million, a figure that surpasses the $92.4 million wagered on the 2024 congressional cycle, as reported by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. This significant growth in prediction markets is drawing increased regulatory scrutiny.

In parallel, JPMorgan Chase reportedly terminated its banking relationship with the prediction market platform Polymarket in October of the previous year. The termination was attributed to regulatory concerns, according to a source familiar with the matter. Polymarket, however, contests this account, asserting that it continues to maintain a close relationship with the bank.

Separately, prediction market operator Kalshi has lodged an accusation against Nevada's gaming regulator, claiming the regulator violated federal law. This dispute arises from a daily fine of $120,000 imposed on Kalshi for alleged non-compliance with a geofencing order. Kalshi contends that investigators misrepresented their identities and circumvented the platform's blocking measures.

The increasing volume of wagers on prediction markets, particularly concerning political events like the U.S. midterms, highlights their growing influence and the associated regulatory challenges faced by platforms and financial institutions involved.