Key facts
- A New York district that voted for Donald Trump is now considered competitive for Democrats.
- A poll indicated 40% voted for Kamala Harris and 58% for Trump in the 2024 election.
- Bob Smullen, who lost the Republican primary, may run on the Conservative Party ballot line.
- This could create a three-way race involving Smullen, Gendebien, and Constantino.
- Smullen has until July 3 to decide on running as a Conservative Party candidate.
A New York congressional district, previously a strong Republican stronghold, is now considered a potential battleground for Democrats following a contentious Republican primary. A recent poll indicates a shift in voter preference, with 40% of respondents stating they voted for Kamala Harris and 58% for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, despite Trump having won the district with 60% of the vote previously. The district's electorate is identified as 23% Democrat, 27% independent, and 46% Republican.
A significant factor in the upcoming general election could be the decision of Bob Smullen, a retired Marine colonel who lost the Republican primary. Smullen, who has the backing of the state's Conservative Party, is currently on its ballot line for the November election. His potential candidacy would create a three-way contest against Republican nominee Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien.
Smullen has not yet definitively ruled out running as a Conservative Party candidate, with a deadline of July 3 to make his decision. His choice may be influenced by a personal feud between the Conservative Party's chair, Jerry Kassar, and Constantino. Kassar is suing Constantino for defamation, stemming from allegations that Kassar threatened him. Kassar stated that the decision to run on the Conservative line rests solely with Smullen.
Battleground New York, an organization focused on flipping competitive House seats, suggests that the acrimonious Republican primary has created an advantageous situation for Democrats. A spokesperson for the group highlighted the internal divisions within the Republican party, suggesting voters would have a choice between candidates disliked by their own party's establishment.