Lula widens lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil presidential poll

Key facts

• President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has widened his lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil's upcoming presidential election.
• A Quaest poll commissioned by Genial suggested Lula would win a second-round runoff against Bolsonaro 44% to 38%.
• In first-round voting intentions, Lula garnered 39% support compared to 33% for Bolsonaro.
• Flavio Bolsonaro faces scrutiny over a film funding scandal involving a banker arrested for alleged fraud.
• Lula's support among independent voters has increased, reaching 26% in the first-round simulation.
• Flavio Bolsonaro has the highest rejection rate among potential candidates, with 54% stating they would not vote for him.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has widened his lead over opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the run-up to Brazil's presidential election, according to a poll released Wednesday by Quaest, commissioned by brokerage Genial.

In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula would win by 44% to 38%, an improvement from a previous poll where he led 42% to 41%. In first-round voting intentions, Lula garnered 39% support compared to 33% for Bolsonaro, an increase from the previous poll's 37% and 32% respectively. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.

Other potential candidates, including Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado and former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, each registered 4% support. Renan Santos, leader of the Free Brazil Movement, maintained 2% support. Undecided voters accounted for 5% in the first-round scenario, with 10% planning to cast blank or null ballots or not vote.

In a simulated runoff against other candidates, Lula also outperformed them. Against Romeu Zema, Lula received 44% support compared to 37% for the former governor. Against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula registered 44% compared to 35% for the governor. In a runoff against Renan Santos, Lula reached 45% while Santos received 28%.

The survey, which interviewed 2,004 people between Friday and Monday, also indicated that 63% of respondents were definitive in their voting decision, while 37% could still change their minds. When asked if Lula deserves another term, 41% said yes, up from 38% in April, while 55% said no, down from 59%.

Concerns about the return of the Bolsonaro family to power were cited by 44% of respondents, while 42% feared the continuation of Lula’s presidency. The poll suggests Lula is interrupting a downward trend among independent voters, reaching 26% support in the first-round simulation and 29% in the runoff against Flavio Bolsonaro.

Flavio Bolsonaro remains the most rejected candidate, with 54% of respondents stating they would not vote for him. This comes amid reports linking him to a disgraced banker, Daniel Vorcaro, who was arrested for an alleged fraud scheme. Leaked messages suggest Bolsonaro solicited funding from Vorcaro for a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

A separate poll by Datafolha released on Saturday showed Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied at 45% in a head-to-head runoff, with 9% indicating they would cast null ballots. This poll was conducted before the film funding scandal gained public traction.