Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff election.
- A CNT/MDA poll shows Lula with 48.0% support versus Bolsonaro's 39.1%.
- A Quaest poll shows Lula with 44% support versus Bolsonaro's 39%.
- Lula leads Bolsonaro in first-round scenarios as well.
- Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff election has narrowed, according to recent polls. A CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday showed Lula would receive 48.0% of the votes in a runoff, compared with 39.1% for Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. This represents a decrease from a June survey where Lula held 49.3% and Bolsonaro 36.8%.
Another poll, conducted by Quaest for brokerage Genial, also indicated a narrowing gap. This survey showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 44% to 39% in a simulated second-round runoff, down from a July 15 Quaest poll that had Lula ahead 45% to 37%.
In a first-round scenario, the Quaest poll indicated Lula would secure 39% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 30%. A previous poll had shown Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 28% in the first round. If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders proceed to a runoff election.