Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil's upcoming election.
- A recent Quaest poll shows Lula with 43% support in a simulated second-round runoff, compared to Bolsonaro's 40%.
- This represents a narrowing of the gap from a previous poll where Lula led 44% to 39%.
- In a first-round scenario, Lula is projected to receive 38% of the votes, with Bolsonaro at 31%.
- The poll surveyed 2,004 people between August 10-13 and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, though the gap has narrowed ahead of the October election, according to a Quaest poll released on Friday. In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula would secure 43% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 40%. This is a tighter margin than a previous August 5 Quaest poll, which showed Lula leading 44% to 39%. The current figures suggest a virtual tie, given the poll's two-percentage-point margin of error.
In a first-round scenario, Lula is projected to receive 38% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 31%. Other candidates, including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, are polling at 4%, 4%, and 2% respectively. Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The election rules stipulate that if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders advance to a runoff election. The latest Quaest poll surveyed 2,004 individuals between August 10 and August 13 and was commissioned by the local media outlet Globo. A prior poll conducted between July 31 and August 3 showed Lula with 39% and Bolsonaro with 30% in the first round.