Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in simulated runoff polls for Brazil's October presidential election.
- A Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual shows Lula ahead 47% to 43% in a potential runoff.
- In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42% of votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 33%, according to Nexus.
- A Datafolha poll indicates Lula would defeat Bolsonaro in a runoff 48% to 43%.
- In a first-round scenario, Datafolha shows Lula leading with 40% of votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 32%.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in simulated runoff scenarios for the upcoming October presidential election, according to recent polls. A Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual showed Lula defeating Bolsonaro 47% to 43% in a potential second-round contest. In a first-round scenario, the same poll indicated Lula would secure 42% of the votes, with Bolsonaro receiving 33%, Ronaldo Caiado 6%, Renan Santos 5%, and Romeu Zema 3%. The Nexus survey polled 2,004 individuals between July 24-26 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Separately, a Datafolha poll released Friday showed Lula maintaining his lead, with 48% of voters favoring him against Bolsonaro's 43% in a hypothetical runoff. A prior Datafolha survey in June had Lula ahead by 47% to 43%. In a first-round scenario according to Datafolha, Lula would lead with 40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 32%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, and Romeu Zema and Renan Santos each at 3%. The Datafolha poll surveyed 2,004 people between July 22-23, also with a 2 percentage point margin of error. Brazil's electoral system dictates that if no candidate secures over 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders proceed to a runoff election.