Key facts
- President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
- A poll indicated 72% of respondents opposed Fedorov's dismissal.
- Fedorov's trust rating increased from 35% to 65% within a week.
- In a potential presidential election, Zelensky received 22.3% support, Zaluzhnyi 14.9%, Fedorov 13.4%, and Budanov 7.2%.
- Thousands have protested demanding Fedorov's reinstatement.
President Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to dismiss Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has inadvertently created a significant political rival, according to recent reports. The move has sparked public outcry and propelled Fedorov's popularity to rival Zelensky's own.
Public opinion has largely rejected Zelensky's decision, with a Rating Group poll indicating 72% of respondents opposed Fedorov's dismissal. Political science professor Oleksiy Haran noted that Zelensky's actions boosted Fedorov's ratings, making him a receptive figure for public sentiment. Fedorov has since joined Zelensky, Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov, and former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi as one of the country's most popular figures with potential political ambitions.
Fedorov's trust rating surged from 35% to 65% within a week of his ouster, surpassing Zelensky's rating of 59%. Zaluzhnyi leads with 70%, and Budanov has 62%. Fedorov also emerged as a presidential contender in polls for the first time, with 13.4% indicating they would vote for him in a first-round election, compared to Zelensky's 22.3%.
Fedorov, previously a close ally and instrumental in Zelensky's 2019 campaign and digital transformation efforts, was removed amid a cabinet reshuffle on July 16. Unlike other ousted ministers, Fedorov has not backed down, leading to a standoff where he reportedly only considers returning to his former role. Analysts suggest Fedorov's image as a successful reformer and innovator, particularly in drone warfare, contributes to his appeal.
The dismissal has also impacted the political landscape for other potential contenders. Zaluzhnyi's electoral rating has seen a decline, and Budanov's popularity is also cooling, partly due to stalled peace negotiations. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko noted that Fedorov's current surge is largely due to hype and that his long-term prospects depend on his next moves and whether he joins the opposition or rejoins Zelensky's team.
Ukraine's current martial law prohibits elections, meaning a presidential election can only be held if martial law is canceled or legislation is changed. If the next electoral cycle is delayed significantly, Fedorov might lose momentum, while Zelensky would face continued political challenges.