Kalshi to offer trading on FDA decisions, clinical trial outcomes

The new markets will focus on late-stage clinical trials, with contracts being listed only after a trial has completed enrollment. Each contract will be tied to specific, publicly available documents such as the registered primary endpoint on ClinicalTrials.gov, the FDA's approval letter, or the voting record of the agency's advisory committee. AppliedXL will establish the criteria for interpreting these documents before trading commences, ensuring objectivity.

At launch, the platform will offer contracts for more than a dozen FDA decisions. These include the potential approval of Gilead's experimental cancer drug, anito-cel, and Summit Therapeutics' experimental lung cancer drug, ivonescimab. Additionally, markets will cover whether AriBio's early-stage Alzheimer's disease drug meets the main goals of its late-stage trial.

Kalshi, founded in 2021, currently allows betting on events like sports, elections, and weather. To participate in the new drug development markets, traders will be required to undergo employment verification, and individuals possessing material nonpublic information will be prohibited from trading.