Kalshi seeks CFTC approval for flight cancellation prediction market

Key facts

• Kalshi has filed with the CFTC to create a new prediction market based on flight cancellations.
• The proposed contracts would allow users to trade on the percentage of flights canceled at specific airports.
• FlightAware, designated as the primary data source, has denied authorization for Kalshi to use its data.
• RTX, FlightAware's parent company, stated that any unauthorized use of its data will result in account termination.
• The company aims to turn travel disruptions into a tradable bet, with contracts covering specific airports and timeframes.

Kalshi, a prediction markets platform led by CEO Tarek Mansour, is seeking approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a new market based on flight cancellations. The proposed contracts would allow users to bet on the percentage of flights canceled at specific airports within a defined timeframe. FlightAware was listed as the primary data source in the filing, with the Transportation Department's statistics as a secondary option. However, a spokesperson for RTX, FlightAware's parent company, stated that no company is authorized to use FlightAware's data for this purpose and that any violation of terms of use would lead to account termination. This move comes during the peak summer travel season, a period often associated with increased flight disruptions due to weather and operational issues. Prediction markets, which allow users to bet on various events, have faced scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about insider trading, particularly in sports and politics. Kalshi has implemented measures such as employment verification and blocking certain individuals from trading in specific markets to prevent insider trading.