Key facts
- US residential electricity prices increased by 7% in 2025 compared to 2024.
- Ratepayers in 46 states experienced year-over-year electricity price increases.
- Gasoline prices are up nearly $1/gallon nationwide due to the war in Iran.
- Candidates are shifting focus from climate to energy affordability.
- Data center expansion and energy consumption are major concerns for voters.
- Some states and counties are imposing moratoriums or stricter regulations on data centers.
Elevated gasoline and electricity prices are becoming a central theme in the upcoming US midterm elections, forcing candidates to prioritize consumer affordability over environmental concerns. Democrats are linking rising gas prices to President Trump's foreign policy decisions, while debates over data center expansion and its impact on consumer rates are compelling candidates to address infrastructure investment trade-offs.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, US residential electricity prices rose 7% in 2025 compared to 2024, with ratepayers in 46 states experiencing year-over-year increases. Twelve states and Washington, D.C., saw double-digit annual rate hikes. Factors contributing to these price increases include rising energy costs, infrastructure improvements, extreme weather, environmental mandates, and the energy-intensive development of data centers. In the first quarter of 2026, Hawaii led with the highest electricity prices at 43.91 cents per kWh, followed by California and New York, significantly above the national average of 18.70 cents.
Scott Segal, head of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group, noted that the traditional climate-versus-fossil fuels framing has shifted to affordability and electricity prices for both parties. While progressive Democrats are not necessarily abandoning environmental goals, there is a growing recognition that strict climate change messages are less effective in the run-up to these midterms. The war in Iran is also contributing to higher oil prices, resulting in US gasoline prices being nearly $1 per gallon higher nationwide than a year ago, according to AAA.
An emerging energy pragmatism is influencing candidates' messaging. Incumbent Democratic governors are adopting an "all-of-the-above" approach to energy, incorporating natural gas alongside nuclear and renewable power. However, this trend is not uniform; some Democratic candidates faced pushback for being more open to fossil fuels. In California, 60% of voters are unwilling to pay more for renewables, with 96% citing energy costs as a problem. The state's Democratic gubernatorial candidate is emphasizing affordability over climate goals and has not committed to phasing out gasoline cars by 2035.
Voters are expressing concern over energy affordability and are increasingly blaming data centers, which require substantial power and water. S&P Global reports that candidates' positions on data-center development, including proposed moratoriums, could significantly impact their electoral success. A Politico national survey found that nearly half of Americans expect data center energy costs to be a campaign issue, with a Pew Research Center poll indicating that 38% of respondents viewed the overall impact of data centers on home energy costs as mostly bad. Republicans generally hold more favorable views of data centers as economic development vehicles.
In Texas, 55% of voters oppose data-center construction, despite the state proposing numerous gas-fired projects. Utah's governor requires a new transparency framework and renewable power requirements for data centers, while Florida frontrunners advocate for stricter regulation. Two counties in Maryland have imposed data-center construction moratoriums. There is evidence suggesting that Democratic candidates gained traction in 2025 by taking a tough stance against data centers and high electricity rates. This approach is being adopted by candidates across both parties, who are blaming wealthy tech companies and the energy demands of their data centers. Virginia's Senate recently passed a budget bill to remove a $1.6 billion tax break for data center equipment, signaling a shift in the political climate for developers. Public concern over electricity costs is expected to dominate campaign dialogue and influence electoral outcomes.