Key facts
- A recent NBC News poll shows 49% of registered voters want Democrats to control Congress after the midterms.
- 44% of respondents want Republicans to maintain control of Congress.
- 7% of respondents remain undecided.
- Democratic support has slightly decreased from 50% in March.
- Democrats aim to flip both the House and Senate for the first time in two decades.
A recent NBC News poll indicates that Democrats hold a narrow 5-point lead over Republicans in the desire for Congressional control ahead of the midterm elections. Conducted from May 29 to June 7, the survey of 2,400 registered voters found that 49% want Democrats to control Congress, while 44% prefer Republicans to maintain their current majorities. Seven percent of respondents were undecided.
This latest poll shows a slight decrease in Democratic support compared to a March NBC News survey, where 50% favored Democratic control and 44% favored Republican control. Neither party has held a lead larger than 8 points in NBC News polling on this subject since October 2018. The poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Democrats currently hold a minority in both the Senate and the House and are aiming to regain control of both chambers for the first time in two decades. To achieve this in the Senate, they need to flip four Republican-held seats. The Cook Political Report rates one of these seats, currently held by retiring Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), as leaning Democratic, with former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper as the nominee. Two other races are considered toss-ups: Senator Susan Collins's (R-Maine) bid for a sixth term and Senator Jon Husted's (R-Ohio) attempt to secure a full term after being appointed to succeed Vice President Vance.
Democrats also express optimism about their chances in the Alaska and Texas Senate races, though the Cook Political Report rates both as leaning Republican. In the House, a prolonged redistricting process has created opportunities for Republicans to potentially gain nine seats. However, out of the 18 House seats rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, 14 are already held by Republicans. With Republicans currently holding a slim majority of 218-212, and Representative Kevin Kiley (I-Calif.) caucusing with the GOP, control of the House remains uncertain.