Key facts
- Andy Burnham is running in a special parliamentary election in Makerfield.
- Makerfield is considered a difficult constituency for Labour to win, with Reform UK showing strong support.
- Burnham's personal popularity is higher than the Labour party's in the area.
- A victory in Makerfield could demonstrate Burnham's ability to win back voters who have shifted to Reform UK.
Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, is making a high-stakes gamble by running in a special parliamentary election in Makerfield, a constituency that has become a challenging battleground for the Labour Party. Voters across the UK have increasingly supported the populist right Reform UK Party, turning traditional Labour strongholds into politically precarious areas. Makerfield, with its predominantly white, Christian, working-class electorate, is modeled by POLITICO's polling partner, Public First, as one of the most difficult seats for Labour to retain against Reform UK.
Despite the steep odds, Burnham's decision is seen as a strategic move. Surviving this test could provide him and his supporters with a narrative that they can win back voters who have defected from Labour. His personal popularity, bolstered by a track record of urban improvements that earned him the nickname "The King of the North," offers a potential advantage over the party's standing. Public First's modeling suggests that Burnham's individual support could shift the race from a significant Reform UK lead to a more competitive contest.
Historically, Makerfield has been a Labour stronghold for over a century, but its loyalty has waned. The former MP saw her majority shrink, and the most recent Labour successor won with a similar vote share while Reform UK saw a substantial gain. Current modeling projects Reform UK to dominate if a general election were held today, winning over 40 percent of the vote compared to Labour's approximately 25 percent. However, special elections have unique dynamics, including lower turnout, which the model cannot fully capture.
Discontent among voters is palpable, with some expressing a desire for change and a willingness to switch from Labour to Reform UK due to dissatisfaction with the country's direction. This sentiment was reflected in recent local elections where Reform UK secured all eight main wards in the area. Public First's analysis places Makerfield among the worst constituencies for Labour against Reform UK in the North of England, highlighting the scale of the challenge.
Burnham's strategy hinges on leveraging his personal appeal to distance himself from the national Labour Party. Polls indicate that voters view Burnham more favorably than Labour as a whole, and even more so than Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, when considering who would make a better prime minister. This personal connection could be crucial in Makerfield, where voters may see the by-election as a proxy for a national leadership contest, with many interested in Burnham potentially becoming the country's next leader.