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ATF proposal could boost online gun sales, benefiting Trump Jr.'s company

Created at 2 Jul · 7:34 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

A proposed rule change by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives could allow direct-to-home gun shipments, potentially benefiting GrabAGun, an online retailer where Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder and board member. Critics raise public safety concerns, while the ATF defends the measure as modernizing gun sales.

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Key Numbers

300,000+Donald Trump Jr.'s shares in GrabAGun
$700,000+Value of Trump Jr.'s GrabAGun shares
$5 million+Peak value of Trump Jr.'s GrabAGun shares last year
$100 millionGrabAGun's annual revenue
3.3 millionAnnual gun buyers projected to use home delivery
$103.7 millionEstimated annual consumer savings from proposed rule
20+Years Marianna Mitchem worked at ATF
4Years Mitchem served as industry liaison at ATF
2010Year GrabAGun was founded
$119 millionAmount GrabAGun netted from SPAC merger
85%Drop in GrabAGun's stock price over the past year
34Deregulatory measures proposed by ATF this spring
February 2025Date of presidential executive order for gun access
$30Approximate transfer fee charged by smaller dealers
2026 or early 2027Estimated finalization timeframe for the rule

Who's Involved

Donald Trump Jr.
Shareholder and board member of GrabAGun, an online gun retailer
GrabAGun
Online gun retailer that could benefit from proposed ATF rule
Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF)
Agency proposing rule change for direct firearm shipping
Andrew Surabian
Spokesperson for Donald Trump Jr.
Marc Nemati
CEO of GrabAGun
Robert Leider
ATF chief counsel overseeing the proposed rule
Marianna Mitchem
Senior firearms industry advisor at Everytown for Gun Safety
Everytown for Gun Safety
Gun-control advocacy group opposing the proposed rule
Aneesa McMillan
Spokesperson for Giffords, a gun-control group
Giffords
Gun-control advocacy group opposing the proposed rule
Justin Anderson
Director of online sales at Hyatt Guns
Hyatt Guns
Large gun retailer with a storefront and online sales
Chrystal Santos
Operations manager at Bow & Barrel Sportsmen Center
Bow & Barrel Sportsmen Center
Missouri-based gun shop opposing the proposed rule
ATF proposal could boost online gun sales, benefiting Trump Jr.'s company

↳ Why This Matters

The proposed ATF rule could reshape the U.S. firearm market by enabling direct-to-home gun deliveries, potentially increasing online sales and benefiting companies like GrabAGun, where Donald Trump Jr. holds a significant stake. However, the change also sparks debate over public safety, gun trafficking, and the future of traditional gun retailers.

Key facts

  • A proposed ATF rule could allow licensed dealers to ship firearms directly to in-state residents, bypassing physical store pickups.
  • Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder and board member of GrabAGun, an online retailer that could benefit from the rule change.
  • The proposal includes online identity verification, background checks, and a seven-day waiting period.
  • Critics warn of increased public safety risks, while the ATF defends the rule as modernization.
  • The rule is part of a broader effort to expand gun access following a presidential executive order.

A proposed rule change by the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) could significantly alter firearm sales by allowing licensed dealers to ship guns directly to consumers' homes. This change, if finalized, would permit in-state residents to receive firearms after an online identity verification, background check, and a seven-day waiting period, bypassing the current requirement for in-person pickup at physical stores.

Donald Trump Jr., a shareholder and board member of the online gun retailer GrabAGun, could potentially see his investment benefit from this proposed rule. GrabAGun, described as the 'Amazon of guns,' has seen its stock price drop significantly over the past year, but its CEO has expressed optimism about capitalizing on the new regulatory environment.

Industry officials, gun shop owners, and gun-control advocates have voiced mixed reactions. While the ATF argues the rule modernizes gun sales and offers consumer convenience, critics express serious concerns about public safety, including risks of illegal gun trafficking, mail theft, and straw purchases. Some brick-and-mortar gun shop owners also worry about the financial impact, as they currently profit from transfer fees on online sales requiring in-store pickup.

ATF chief counsel Robert Leider, who oversaw the team that crafted the proposal, defended the measure, stating it aims to align the gun industry with broader economic trends and that the proposed verification system is more secure than traditional in-store purchases. He stated he was unaware of Trump Jr.'s connection to GrabAGun and that the president's son had no influence on the proposal. The White House also stated it had no record of interaction with Trump Jr. on the matter.

The proposed rule is currently in a public comment period, with a closing date in early August. The finalization of the rule is not expected until late 2026 or early 2027, and it could still be modified or withdrawn. The change coincides with a similar proposal by the U.S. Postal Service to lift a ban on mailing handguns.

Frequently asked questions

The proposed rule would allow licensed firearm dealers to ship guns directly to in-state residents after an online identity verification, background check, and a seven-day waiting period.

Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder and board member of GrabAGun, an online gun retailer that could benefit from the proposed rule.

Proponents, including the ATF, argue it modernizes gun sales and offers consumer convenience. Opponents, including gun-control groups and some retailers, raise concerns about public safety, gun trafficking, and the impact on brick-and-mortar stores.

The rule is currently in a public comment period, and if finalized, it is not expected to take effect until late 2026 or early 2027.

What Happens Next

01The public comment period for the proposed rule closes in early August.
02The ATF may finalize the rule by late 2026 or early 2027.
03The rule could still be withdrawn or changed before finalization.

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Cadence

How It Developed

Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder and board member of GrabAGun, an online gun retailer.
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) proposed a rule change to allow licensed dealers to ship firearms directly to in-state residents.
The proposed rule includes online identity verification, background checks, and a seven-day waiting period.
Currently, online gun purchases require in-person pickup and background checks unless a permit is held.
Industry officials, store owners, and gun-control advocates suggest the rule could significantly increase online gun sales.
Critics argue the direct shipping poses public safety risks and threatens brick-and-mortar gun shops.
GrabAGun's CEO expressed optimism about capitalizing on the potential rule change.
ATF chief counsel Robert Leider stated the proposal aims to align the gun industry with the modern economy and estimates annual consumer savings.

Sources

T1
Trump Jr.'s 'Amazon of guns' could make millions under new proposed firearm ruleReuters

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